The recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) emphasizes that there is an 80% probability that the average global temperature .will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for a temporary period in at least one of the next five years. This serves as a strong reminder that we are steadily approaching the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, which primarily focuses on long-term temperature increases spanning several decades rather than short-term fluctuations within one to five years.

Global warming updates | Global Warming Water Scarcity surpass 1.5°C above the pre industrial level within the next five years.

The key takeaways from the report are as follows: there is an 80% likelihood that between 2024 and 2028, at least one year will experience a temporary temperature rise exceeding 1.5°C. However, it is crucial to note that this short-term warming does not signify a permanent breach of the lower 1.5°C goal established in the Paris Agreement. Additionally, it is highly probable that one of the next five years will surpass all previous records, surpassing even the warmest year on record, which is currently 2023.

This report serves as a stark reminder of the urgency for immediate climate action. It highlights the need for collective efforts to address the challenges posed by climate change and work towards a sustainable future.

According to the WMO report, the global mean near-surface temperature is projected to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline for each year from 2024 to 2028. The report suggests that there is an 86% likelihood that at least one of these years will surpass 2023, which is currently the warmest year on record.

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update states that there is a 47% chance that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year period of 2024-2028 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era. This is an increase from 32% in last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.

Since 2015, the probability of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5°C has steadily risen to 80%. In contrast, between 2017 and 2021, there was only a 20% chance of exceedance, which then increased to 66% between 2023 and 2027.

The update was compiled by the UK’s Met Office, the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It combines predictions from WMO designated Global Warming Producing Centres and other contributing centers.

This update coincided with a significant speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who called for more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from 13-15 June. Mr. Guterres emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that we have the power to control the outcome and that the battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees will be determined in the 2020s.

Mr. Guterres also referenced supporting evidence from the European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service, implemented by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. This evidence revealed that each of the past 12 months has set a new global temperature record for that particular time of year.

Based on the data from the past 12 months, the average global temperature for the period of June 2023 to May 2024 has reached a record high of 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change ERA5 dataset.